Thursday, September 9, 2010

NFC South 2010 Preview

Atlanta will be significantly improved with a healthy Michael Turner at running back and Peria Jerry at defensive tackle, but this division is New Orleans' to lose. The reigning champions' biggest loss in the offseason was the linebacker Scott Fujita, an emotional leader but ultimately only responsible for 43 tackles in 2009. The Falcons are improved and have an easier schedule than the Saints so they are going to have a tough time repeating this year.

Predicted finish: 1) New Orleans Saints 2) Atlanta Falcons 3) Carolina Panthers 4) Tampa Bay Buccaneers

New Orleans Saints

image Coming off a season for the ages, the Saints again will be the NFL's most dangerous team with the ball. Drew Brees throwing to Marques Colston, Devery Henderson, Robert Meachem, Jeremy Shockey, Lance Moore and Reggie Bush makes fans of big-play attacks salivate. Not to mention fantasy footballers. As long as the line stays steady and RB Pierre Thomas is healthy, the 500-point mark is reachable again.

Defensive leader Scott Fujita left the linebacking corps for Cleveland, while DE Charles Grant was released. But key safety Darren Sharper, an All-Pro safety, was re-signed - he'll miss six games with a left knee injury - and LB Jon Vilma, DE Will Smith and CB Tracy Porter are around to keep the Saints respectable on D. The play of the defensive ends opposite Will Smith will determine whether the Saints repeat as Super Bowl champions or go home after the early in the playoffs.

Coach Sean Payton has warned his players about a Super Bowl hangover. If the Saints avoid it - and they certainly have all the elements to do so - the only hangovers will be from the partying on Bourbon Street after a steady stream of victories this season.

We should know fairly quickly if any sign of contentment has slipped into the New Orleans locker room, because in the season's first five weeks the Saints will be challenged by two of their playoff opponents -- Minnesota and Arizona -- in addition to division rivals Atlanta and Carolina, and the improved 49ers. I don't see the Saints repeating their entire magic carpet ride of 2009, but they're too good to not become the NFC South's first repeat champion.

Atlanta Falcons

image For the first time since they entered the league in 1966, the Falcons have had consecutive winning records. The caveat, of course, is they didn't get to the playoffs with their 9-7 mark last season.

They should do better this time, considering how many injuries hit in 2009. And the Falcons will be formidable because of their offense, which has most of the key parts in QB Matt Ryan, RB Michael Turner, TE Tony Gonzalez, WR Roddy White and a pretty good line that yielded only 27 sacks.

Adding cornerback Dunta Robinson should bolster a problematic secondary. LB Curtis Lofton could be a playmaker, and the Falcons desperately need one on defense.  The best hope is a return to form by defensive end John Abraham, who slipped from 16½ sacks in 2008 to a paltry 5½ last year. But Abraham is entering his 11th NFL season and might be in permanent decline.

Matt Ryan remains an emerging star at quarterback, and look for him to make a sizable leap in his development after last year's half-step back. The key for Atlanta will be defensive improvement against the pass, and drawing Pittsburgh without Ben Roethlisberger and Arizona without Kurt Warner in the season's opening two weeks sure doesn't hurt so the Falcons could get off to a hot start.

Carolina Panthers

image John Fox has reached the rarified atmosphere no NFL coach seeks: the final year of his contract. It's difficult enough reaching players when you have long-term security. Try it when you are a lame duck.

Fox also is without DE Julius Peppers, now in Chicago, and longtime QB Jake Delhomme, now in Cleveland, as he makes a final stand in Charlotte. Key linebacker Thomas Davis is likely sidelined for the season, and there are concerns about keeping healthy such important performers as WR Steve Smith, RBs DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart, and LB Jon Beason.

Both Stewart and Williams ran for more than 1,100 yards in 2009 and Fox needs similar numbers to get his team near last year's 8-8 record.

This is a very strange season in Carolina with nine starters from last year's 8-8 club either released or not re-signed, and head coach John Fox in the unusual situation of working in the final season of his contract. There's some talent on defense and in the running game, but Carolina doesn't have enough depth or impact players to put together anything approaching a playoff run in 2010.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

image At least Raheem Morris won't be firing both of his coordinators in his second season at the helm. Unless, that is, he cans himself - Morris is coordinating the defense for Tampa Bay, and we're not talking about a body-rocking unit anymore.

Tampa allowed 400 points under the league's youngest coach, then drafted defensive players in the first three rounds: Oklahoma tackle Gerald McCoy, taken third overall; UCLA tackle Brian Price in the second round; and Vanderbilt cornerback Myron Lewis in the third. All three could find time as starters.

The offense is shaky, even though there are promising players on the line. Second-year QB Josh Freeman could have a long year because the skill positions are so questionable. The Bucs are pretty deep at running back, though, and Carnell Williams has a shot at reviving the old Cadillac after injuries slowed him.

The Bucs' youth movement is far from finished, and we're still in the process of finding out if Morris, 33, and general manager Mark Dominik have a plan that will produce incremental progress.

Note: Cross posted from SportzNutz.

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