We all know this division belongs to the Colts, but Tennessee appears poised to emerge as Indy's strongest challenger, as it has the talent to play the kind of keep-away, clock-control game to protect leads and Vince Young has always had the ability to come from behind. The Texans have a big-play offense to rival the Colts, but the loss of Brian Cushing for the first four games of the season could have them playing catch-up the rest of the season. As for the Jaguars, they don't stand a chance in this tough division.
Predicted finish: 1) Indianapolis Colts 2) Tennessee Titans 3) Houston Texans 4) Jacksonville Jaguars
Indianapolis Colts
It is very hard to find much to fault with the Colts. Sure, they lost the Super Bowl, but the Colts were the NFL's elite team over the 17-week season. Had new coach Jim Caldwell not rested his regulars in the final 1 1/2 games, Indy might very well have gone into the playoffs undefeated.
If Indy had a weakness, it was running the football. The Colts finished dead last in that category in '09, averaging 80.9 per game. People love to talk about that as a weakness however realize Indy treats the short pass just like the run. It is really a meaningless stat for this offense.
The Colts might challenge their 14-2 mark of a year ago if the offensive line comes together; right now, with center Jeff Saturday's status uncertain after right knee surgery, it's a question mark.
The other change this year is that Clyde Christenson is now the offensive coordinator. That makes no difference as we all know who calls the shots for the Colts offense and his name is Peyton.
Peyton Manning sets the pace for all quarterbacks. Make that all players. The NFL's only four-time MVP is a favorite for a fifth award, surrounded by the strongest cast on offense in the conference. That cast will be even deeper this year with the return of WR Anthony Gonzalez from a knee injury, and with the further maturation of RB Donald Brown to complement Joseph Addai. The line allowed just 13 sacks in 2009, and Manning will weave his magic to WRs Reggie Wayne, Austin Collie and Pierre Garcon, and TE Dallas Clark. The only problem the Colts could possibly have on offense are if Peyton gets injured (not likely), or more likely that they have some trouble with the new positioning of the umpire as they have in preseason.
Nobody can expect the Colts to keep that pace on defense, but if they rank in the middle of the league overall and improve their 24th-rated run D, home-field advantage for the playoffs easily is within reach. Key defenders Dwight Freeney, Gary Brackett and Antoine Bethea must stay healthy and Brackett has a right hand injury.
In the end they will win this division, however, how they fare in a late four-game stretch at the Patriots (Nov. 21), against the Chargers (Nov. 28), against the Cowboys (Dec. 5) and at the Titans (Dec. 9) should determine whether they'll have a first-round bye
Tennessee Titans
One reason Jeff Fisher is the longest-tenured coach with the same team is he knows how to listen to the owner. And Bud Adams made a good call last season.
The Titans plunged to 0-6 with Kerry Collins at quarterback, including a 59-0 annihilation at New England. Adams told Fisher he wanted him to bench Collins for Vince Young, and the Titans were among the league's best closers, going 8-2 the rest of the way and barely missing the playoffs. Young hardly was the main reason - that would be NFL Offensive Player of the Year Chris Johnson with his 2,006 yards rushing, 503 receiving and 16 TDs - but his maturity and playmaking abilities were critical.
This year Johnson has set a goal of hitting the 2,500-yard rushing mark. Though the odds against him are steep -- no back in NFL history has reached the 2,000-yard mark in consecutive years -- the Titans will certainly give him the opportunity. Tennessee rode Eddie George for eight years until his wheels fell off and we expect they will do the same with Johnson.
There are issues though, there's been transition on the offensive line and at linebacker, and the defense must improve against the pass, which means a stronger pass rush and stingier play in the secondary. Tennessee also lost some leaders in LB Keith Bulluck and C Kevin Mawae.
Tennessee will have to develop a stronger passing game to beat all of those eight-man fronts on the horizon and though Vince Young had a good enough second half last year, this year he will have to prove he can move that 8th or 9th defensive player off the line with his arm.
Bottom line, the Titans should be in the mix for a wild card playoff spot as long as they take care of business against the AFC West and at least hold their own in the division.
Houston Texans
Finally, a winning season for the Texans. In their ninth year of existence, the Texans won their last four games to wind up 9-7. Now, the folks in Houston are expecting at least a wild-card berth for the first time.
With a passing offense that led the league, sparked by Matt Schaub's rise at quarterback and the superb pass catching of Andre Johnson and TE Owen Daniels until he tore up his right knee midway through the schedule, the Texans could contend. They need to sort out their injury-hit backfield and find a go-to runner, particularly if Steve Slaton keeps losing his grip on the ball. Arian Foster could be the guy.
Houston has playmakers on defense in Mario Williams, DeMeco Ryans and Brian Cushing. But Cushing has a four-game suspension for violating the NFL's substance abuse policy, and top CB Dunta Robinson is now a Falcon.
Houston has a tough schedule and wont be sneaking up on anyone this year and will have a hard time duplicating last years winning record. It could break either way for them and they should hover near .500 this year and just miss out on a playoff spot.
Jacksonville Jaguars
A sellout in Jacksonville? Could happen for Game 1, but not because of anything the Jaguars are doing. Denver will be in town, and a certain backup quarterback named Tim Tebow has something of a following in northern Florida - all of Florida, for that matter.
That might be the most interesting aspect of the entire season for the Jags. Coach Jack Del Rio almost certainly needs a bounce-back year to keep his job, but it's difficult to see more than six or seven victories on the schedule.
RB Maurice Jones-Drew is an elite player. The Jags will go only as far as he can carry them as He's the only one on a roster that needs significant improvement on both lines and more consistency from QB David Garrard.
With so many new pieces on defense and still so many questions about the offense, it's tough to see the Jaguars being much better than they were last year and should be in a dogfight with Houston for last place in the division and out of the playoffs.
Note: Cross posted from SportzNutz.Permalink
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